Summary: why Google is unlikely to maintain its dominance in search, as exemplified by asking Grok 4.1 three questions.


Do AI chatboxes spell the end of Google’s dominance in search?


I wrote the following entry in reaction to this recent discussion between four Americans  either with a background in tech (one of whom was in fact a former senior executive at Facebook) or specialising in reporting on this subject. The podcast was aired on 6th December and I watched the first 30 minutes or so two days later. Entitled ‘OpenAI declares "Code Red" as competitors eat away ChatGPT market share’, it struck me as presenting too optimistic an assessment of Google’s prospects.

If the clip does not play in picture-in-picture mode after a right click with your mouse, then click here.
Source: https://youtu.be/Uxi6LVKanuY


I personally believe that Google’s dominance in search will gradually erode because AI chatboxes already provide better answers in less time than it takes to scroll through a single page of results from Google’s search engine (see below ‘I asked Grok 4.1 the following’ ). As more people come to the realisation that AI chatboxes are superior (and for the time being, they are also free of the advertising clutter which plagues the lists of results generated by the current king of the hill), they will switch to voice-activated conversational agents answering their queries through single conversational responses rather than continue using lists of hyperlinks preceded by ‘snippets’ generated by algorithms whose real purpose is to maximise advertising revenues for Google rather than to provide the best possible set of results for the users of its search engine.

When I put the question ‘Do AI chatbots spell the end of Google’s dominance in search?’ to Grok 4.1 on 12th December 2025, the answer was nuanced but revealing: Google still holds roughly 90% of the global search market, yet clear cracks are appearing. User migration towards AI tools is accelerating, the ratio of traditional search users to AI search users has halved in just twelve months and more than half of ChatGPT interactions are now information-seeking. Google is fighting back aggressively with AI Overviews and deeper integration of Gemini (the name of Google’s AI chatbot), but the direction of travel is unmistakable.

In five years’ time I would be astonished if Google still commands more than 75% of the search market. In ten years’ time, even that figure is likely to seem a relic of a bygone era of search dominance.

Time will tell whether my predictions were correct or not.


I asked Grok 4.1 the following:
Do AI chatboxes spell the end of Google’s dominance in search?
Are there any signs that this is the case. If so, what is Google likely to do?


Grok 4.1 HEAVY (which answered in 1 minute and 34 seconds):

Current status of Google's search dominance
As of December 2025, Google maintains approximately 89.6% of the global search market share, per recent reports from Omnius and similar analytics firms. This is down slightly from prior years (a reported 1.5% loss in 2025 alone, according to BrightEdge data shared with Yahoo Finance) but it remains overwhelmingly dominant compared to competitors like Bing (4%) or emerging AI-driven alternatives. AI chatbots, while popular, collectively account for a much smaller portion of information retrieval traffic—ChatGPT, for instance, sees about 26 times fewer daily visits than Google, based on a 24-month study by OneLittleWeb.

Signs that AI chatbots could challenge Google

Yes, there are emerging signs of a shift, though not yet a full dethroning:

These signs suggest AI chatbots are eroding edges of Google's dominance, particularly for conversational or zero-click queries, but traditional search still prevails for comprehensive, source-linked results (Forbes, July 2025).

Google's likely response

Google is already countering the threat through aggressive AI integration and self-disruption:


The search results which Grok 4.1 used to generate its answer:

Are Chatbots On The Verge Of Dethroning Google? Not So Fast
The overwhelming majority of web users still trust Google for comprehensive, link-rich results over the single-response approach of chatbots.
forbes.com

When Will AI Search Beat Google? 2025–2030 Forecast | TTMS
2025: LLM usage still <5% of global search queries. Google remains ~90% of the market, but AI chat queries are growing exponentially. ChatGPT's ...
ttms.com

The Shifting Landscape of Information Retrieval: AI vs Google Search
The ratio of Google users to AI search users has been halved in just 12 months, shrinking from 10:1 to 4.7:1.
blog.bloola.com

Will GenAI Break Google's Dominance in Search? - ProMarket
When a publisher negotiates with Google, they're negotiating with both their largest traffic source and a potential GenAI training customer.
promarket.org

AI Search Industry Report 2025: Key Trends & Market Insights
In 2025, the growth of generative AI, conversational interfaces, and multimodal tools is changing how people find and interact with information.
omnius.so

Agentic AI vs Google Search (2025) - Ampcome
Explore how agentic AI is challenging Google Search in 2025. Market share shifts, SEO impact, and what businesses must know to prepare for ...
ampcome.com

Google AI stumbles, ChatGPT emergence changed course ... - CNBC
In other words, the AI market has become hugely important and has entirely different competitive dynamics than search, which Google dominates.
cnbc.com

GOOGLE SEARCH STATISTICS 2025 - Amra & Elma
Meanwhile, growing regulatory scrutiny and competition from AI chatbots raise questions about Google's long-term dominance. Brands like Amra and ...
amraandelma.com

AI Chatbots vs Google Search: The Future of Online Advertising
Explore how AI chatbots are reshaping search advertising, urging brands to adapt their strategies for a new digital landscape. Learn more!
gracker.ai

Gemini Tops Google's 2025 Search Trends as AI Chatbots Dominate
Gemini Tops Google's 2025 Search Trends as AI Chatbots Dominate. Google's AI chatbot Gemini ranked #1 in trending searches while DeepSeek hit #7.
techbuzz.ai

Gemini deals ChatGPT a fresh blow as Google's AI momentum builds
The success of AI Overviews and AI Mode in Search have helped ease investor concerns that chatbots could destroy Google's traditional search ...
morningstar.com

ChatGPT Impact on Google Search Traffic and SEO in 2025 - Wellows
As of August 2025, approximately 14.3% of Google users have also used ChatGPT for search-like queries, reflecting the growing curiosity around ...
wellows.com

2025: The State of Consumer AI | Menlo Ventures
For now, general AI assistants dominate by default, with consumers often pasting lab results into chatbots. Companies that combine AI's data ...
menlovc.com

Google vs. ChatGPT: Is Traditional Search Still Strong in 2025?
Despite ChatGPT's rise, Google's search traffic hasn't declined — in fact, it's still growing. See why AI search isn't replacing Google ...
9rooftops.com

In Google vs LLM battle for search dominance, the consumer will win
Recent results suggest Google's AI strategy is beginning to bear fruit. In Q3 2025, Alphabet reported a 14.5% year-on-year increase in search ...
imd.org

AI chatbots aren't killing search—yet - The CFO
According to a fresh study from onelittleweb.com, chatbot traffic soared 80.92% from April 2024 to March 2025, racking up 55.2 billion visits.
the-cfo.io

AI Chatbots vs Search Engines: 24-Month Study on Traffic Trends
Both platforms are growing at an accelerated pace, signaling their increasing dominance in the AI chatbot space. AI Features Helping Search Engines Bounce Back: Search engines like Google and Microsoft Bing are leveraging AI features like AI Overviews and Search Generative Experience (SGE), resulting in a steady increase in traffic in early 2025.
onelittleweb.com

Google vs AI search: is Google’s dominance fading?
As Google’s search market share dips, here’s what marketers need to know about the shifting landscape
contentgrip.com

Can Google Still Dominate Search in the Age of AI Chatbots?
This level of engagement far surpasses that of chatbots like ChatGPT which, despite its rapid growth, achieves only 185.2 million daily visits[^7]. Despite the decline in Safari searches, Google remains the default search engine across many devices, including all Apple products, contributing significantly to its revenue stream. In 2025, its search advertising revenue was robust, with over $66.9 billion generated across platforms like Google Search, Gmail, and Google Maps, substantiating its financial health despite allegations of monopoly practices[^6][^8].
mtsoln.com

AI challenges the dominance of Google search
ChatGPT attracts more than 800 million weekly active users, up from 400 million in February 2025, according to Demandsage, a data and research firm. Traditional search engines like Google and Microsoft's Bing still dominate the market for search.
bbc.com

Gartner Predicts Search Engine Volume Will Drop 25% by 2026, Due to AI Chatbots and Other Virtual Agents
By 2026, traditional search engine volume will drop 25%, with search marketing losing market share to AI chatbots and other virtual agents, according to Gartner, Inc. Read more here. #GartnerHT
gartner.com

AI search challenges Google's dominance, Apple exec says | Information Age | ACS
Thanks for signing up! ... The rise of generative AI chatbots such as OpenAI's ChatGPT is challenging Google's search dominance, says Apple's Eddy Cue.
ia.acs.org.au

Can Google still dominate search in the age of AI chatbots?
ft.com

New study reveals people are ditching Google for AI tools like ...
While ChatGPT search often sources citations, it doesn't always link them, leaving users on their own to search. Google links to sources, but AI ...
yahoo.com

ChatGPT might rule the AI chatbots — but it can't beat Google Search
AI chatbots need search engines to answer questions with real-time information, and Bing is much worse than Google. As a result, Google's market share has ...
reddit.com

What happens to Google's dominance if AI search engines start ...
The dominance of Google (which includes an AI search engine—an “AI mode” built on the Gemini 2.5 Pro model) won't be lessened by zero-click, ...
technologicalidea.quora.com

Google's AI Overviews Turned One: Is It Already Game Over for AI ...
On today's podcast episode, we discuss if Google is actually fending off the AI search competition, what its AI Overviews are doing to ...
emarketer.com

ChatGPT vs. Google Search: How Predictions Have Played Out and ...
Experts proclaimed that AI chatbots would revolutionize how people access information, potentially dismantling Google's advertising empire.
linkedin.com

Google Takes Aim at AI Firms Challenging Its Search Dominance
Google is overhauling its search engine with “AI Mode” to rival AI chatbots like ChatGPT. AI Mode answers queries in chatbot-style, differing ...
wsj.com

Google searches for answer to rising threat from AI chatbots
AI is coming for Google's search engine dominance. In April, Google searches on Apple's Safari browser declined for the first time.
observer.co.uk

Google Is Searching for an Answer to ChatGPT - Bloomberg.com
Website operators are also encountering new competition from AI-generated sites designed to game Google's search algorithms. As of March 2025 ...
bloomberg.com

How AI Disruption is Changing Search in 2025 | Kinetic Marketing
Google remains a major player, but it's no longer the sole gatekeeper to online visibility as AI is changing search and the players.
kineticmc.com

Beyond Search: Google Eyes AI Chatbots as New Ad Territory
Google is testing ad placement in AI chatbot conversations to protect its $200 billion search ad business, as user behavior shifts away from traditional search.
pymnts.com

ai's biggest 2025 mistake is chasing chatbots - Facebook
Google CEO Sundar Pichai says generative AI won't change your life much more by 2025 than it already has. He spoke at the DealBook Summit, ...
facebook.com

Is AI a Threat to Google Search? - Harding Loevner
For now, AI chatbots are generally better suited to non-commercial searches, such as informational searches, which contain fewer advertising ...
hardingloevner.com

'Existential crisis': how Google's shift to AI has upended the online ...
Media sites are taking action on several fronts as traffic referrals dry up and AI companies plunder their content.
theguardian.com

Can Google still dominate search in the age of AI chatbots? - AFR
For the first time in a generation, the omnipresent monopoly is under threat. After two years of false starts, the company is trying to regain ...
afr.com

AI Search Statistics for 2025 - Exposure Ninja
AI Overviews appear in 18% of global Google searches (Source). ChatGPT has an 81% AI chatbot market share, dominating Perplexity, Copilot, ...
exposureninja.com

Exclusive new data shows Google is winning the AI search wars
In data that BrightEdge shared with me in advance of publishing the new findings, Google had lost 1.5% of the search market share in 2025. That ...
finance.yahoo.com

AI chatbots global market share 2024-2025 - Statista
With an estimated market share of ***** percent during the period between April 2024 and March 2025, ChatGPT was the most popular artificial ...
statista.com

30+ Google Gemini Statistics for 2026: Usage, Market Share, Growth ...
A 3.01% share between Oct 2024–Oct 2025 positions Gemini within the global AI chatbot market, reflecting steady traction across Google's ...
secondtalent.com

Top Generative AI Chatbots by Market Share – December 2025
AI Search Market Share ... Below you will find the YTD 2025 trend of Google Gemini's market share in the generative AI chatbot space.
firstpagesage.com

Google's AI Overview Statistics (2025) - SellersCommerce
As of early 2025, AIOs show up in 13% of global searches and about 16% of all U.S. desktop keywords. Studies covering over 300,000 keywords ...
sellerscommerce.com

44 NEW Artificial Intelligence Statistics (Oct 2025) - Exploding Topics
The AI market is expanding at a CAGR of 31.5%. As of 2025, 1.8% of all new job listings are specifically in the AI space. 90% of tech workers ...
explodingtopics.com

How people are using ChatGPT | OpenAI
By July 2025, that share had risen to more than half (52%). ChatGPT ... State of Enterprise AI 2025 > cover image. The state of ...
openai.com

Can OpenAI Respond After Google Closes the A.I. Technology Gap?
By the end of 2025, OpenAI expects to reach monthly revenues that translate to $20 billion in income each year, according to Sam Altman, the ...
nytimes.com

Big Tech warned over AI 'delusional' outputs by US attorneys general
In it, dozens of attorneys general said the chatbots "encouraged users' delusions," creating mental health risks for kids and adults. They ...
reuters.com

How Google Dodged the AI Search Collapse - PYMNTS.com
Google avoided the AI search collapse many predicted by embedding Gemini directly into the results page improving ad performance.
pymnts.com

Threat actors misuse AI to enhance operations - Google Blog
Nov 05, 2025. A new report from the Google Threat Intelligence Group shows adversaries experimenting with AI for novel capabilities. Today ...
blog.google

How Google Is Disrupting Itself to Beat OpenAI - Business Insider
When OpenAI unleashed ChatGPT, it awoke Google from its slumber. As Google now reimagines its business in the age of AI, big questions lie ...
businessinsider.com

State attorneys general warn Microsoft, OpenAI, Google, and other ...
The letter demanded companies institute new safeguards to keep users safe from harmful psychological impacts.
techcrunch.com

2025 and the Next Chapter(s) of AI | Google Cloud Blog
As of January 2025, it's still us humans writing the prompts, defining the reasoning flows, putting guardrails in place to manage agentic action ...
cloud.google.com

Google AI overviews in 2025: Confidently wrong, impossible to avoid
The chatbots made up answers 60% of the time: troubling in itself, but that has nothing to do with hallucinations in Google AI Overviews ...
mashable.com

Is Google about to destroy the web? - BBC
Google says adding more AI to its search engine will rejuvenate the internet. Others predict an apocalypse for websites.
bbc.com


Lausanne, the above was published on the twelfth day of the twelfth month of the year two thousand and twenty-five.