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MY TRANSCRIPT (and my emphasis)
It does seem now as if the encirclement of the
Ukrainian army in the Donbass is now in effect. In other words,
those troops
do seem to be trapped in what the Russians like to call a cauldron. They are apparently twelve brigades of the Ukrainian army who
are trapped there. And that it seems to me is the
decisive event, if it is indeed true. And sooner or later, those troops will either have to
lay down their arms and be taken
prisoner or disperse
to their homes or melt
away in some fashion. But anyway it
looks as if organised resistance from the Ukrainian army in
eastern Ukraine is coming to an end. And the
Russians
by the way refer to these encirclements
– which are very much a feature of
Russian
military strategy and have been ever since, well, the Napoleonic
wars – they refer to these things as cauldrons. The idea is
that you encircle the
troops
– the enemy troops – in a kind of trap. I should stress that one mustn’t think of this – as I said – as a
medieval siege. It’s um
… the surrounding
troops can be fairly widely dispersed, but
they’re able to control what goes
on in the cauldron
because of the
location of their artillery, their observations, um
their drone work
– their drones which are flying over the cauldron and keeping
track on what the encircled troops are doing. They can prevent
supplies going in. They can complete … prevent
complete formations coming out. The intention is
gradually
to raise the temperature if you like of the so-called
cauldron – that’s by the way apparently why it is a cauldron
– to raise the temperature for the encircled troops until
their position becomes unsustainable and even unbearable.
And there’s already some reports – which again I can’t corroborate
– that these troops who have been
encircled are running
low on fuel and ammunition, without
which of course an army cannot function. There is no possibility of relief; there is no
military force that Ukraine has they can break through and
break this encirclement. So it does seem to me as
if over the next few days – and it may take perhaps a week –, but
sooner or later, this force in
eastern Ukraine is going to either
disintegrate
or surrender – in which case, the active part of
the war will in effect be over.
Lausanne, the above
was published on the seventh day of
the third month of the year two
thousand and twenty-two.