Brian Berletic, an ex-Marine, is an independent American
geopolitical analyst based in Thailand whose work I came across six
years ago in connection with the situation in Syria. In a book he
co-wrote under the pen-name of Tony Cartalucci with another
Southeast-Asia-based independent journalist, Nile Bowie, about the
subversion of Syria (the title is Subverting
Syria. How CIA, contra gangs and NGOs manufacture, mislabel and
market mass murder, Progressive Press, 2012), the theme
of manipulation of reality by the media of the countries aligned with
the geopolitical objectives of the so-called western bloc had already
been explored. For instance, the last sentence of the third paragraph
of the book’s introduction reads as follows: ‘The
corporate lapdog media, cogs in the military-industrial complex, lap
up and magnify the Big Lie, creating a
fake "reality" that the average person has little chance of seeing
through.’ [My emphasis] Although I do not know his
work that well, it certainly seems to me that a recurring theme in his
vlogs is deconstructing the narratives offered to the ‘average
person’ in the so-called West as regards current geopolitical
affairs. Yesterday, he explained in a clip just short of 10 minutes
the most probable motives underpinning the decision of the Russian top
brass for the withdrawal of their forces from the city of Kherson,
which is summarised as follows in the description he provided for his
video on YouTube:
Russia’s Ministry of Defense has announced the withdrawal of
Russian forces from Kherson city to the east bank of the Dnieper
River.
This was alluded to 3 weeks ago by General Sergey Surovikin and for
the purpose of weathering Ukraine’s all-or-nothing offensive while
preserving Russian manpower and equipment.
While Russian forces have successfully defended the city until now,
even the slightest possibility of Ukrainian forces overwhelming
Russian troops on the wrong side of the river would result in a
defeat of historic proportions. Russia has now eliminated that
possibility.
Meanwhile, Russian forces continue dismantling Ukraine’s national
power grid, its air defense network, and what remains of its
overstretched forces.
Ukraine fights for today’s headlines, Russia is fighting to win the
long war.
Towards, the end of his presentation, he reiterated what seems to be a
leitmotiv in his recent vlogs, namely that Ukrainian forces and
equipment are being depleted at rates which are not sustainable:
[…] they [the Ukrainians] suspect it could possibly be
a trap to lure Ukrainian forces in. And as all of this takes place,
Russia continues striking at Ukraine’s National power grid. Each day
that goes by, it is further dismantled. I talked about Ukrainian air
defences recently, how Western analysts admit that they are
completely destroyed and the West has no way to replace them. I’ve
been talking for months about how once Ukraine loses all of their
tanks, they have no viable option to replace them. The West is … has
become increasingly desperate to find ways to send them more tanks.
And they’re simply not coming in faster than they’re being destroyed
on the battlefield. This is going to have an accumulative effect.
This coupled with the fact that Ukraine has now reached the furthest
extent its offensives could … could reach. Russia has weathered them
by … by maintaining its manpower and its equipment intact. And now
it is reinforcing it with 300,000 reservists mobilised being brought
to the front right now as we speak. And Russia is going to then make
its move … it’s going to make its move against Ukrainian forces that
have stretched themselves out. There are Ukrainian forces that are
going to be required to hold Kherson City and there will be
logistics required to sustain that. This is going to stretch what
little Ukraine has left out even further. And when Russia makes its
move, it’s going to be moving against a Ukrainian Force thinned out,
stretched out, diminished and unable to replace its losses. This is
what we’re looking at over the next two or three months. So the next
month we’ll be listening to the Western media just … just as they
did after the Kharkov offensive, about how well Ukraine is doing.
And then reality is going to set back in. So they’re going to have
this propaganda boost and then reality is going to set back in. Be
patient. In the meantime, let’s keep our eyes open and see how this
develops. Maybe it is a trap. I don’t think that it’s a trap, but
maybe it is. We’ll know soon enough.
Indeed, I believe that in probably not even two months, his military
analysis will either have been confirmed or refuted. Dear reader, I
shall let you guess which of the two I see as the most likely outcome.
Lausanne, the above was
published on the tenth day of the eleventh
month of the year two thousand and
twenty-two.